Replies to post #184617 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Greymatter1]

Back of the envelope math....given your calculations 250/share times 385 million shares is a market cap of 96 billion. For Amazon type growth: $500/share is $193 billion market cap. $1000/share is $385 billion. I am all for it but these valuations seem very high for one drug. The major catalyst will be compounding growth. This year the company only predicts $350 million in revenue and we lose a year of exclusivity. Two main factors that will drive the share price are sales and year over year growth. Accelerated growth can get you 25-30x p/e, but how quickly will Vascepa get to $6 billion or more per year in sales? And still maintain 25% or more year over year growth projections? Time is of the essence and exclusivity expires in 10 years with year one coming in at 350-400 million in sales. Are these projections realistic? Can they be achieved in enough time?

[couldbebetter]

Crikker, At $6 billion in revenues the valuation may be 4-5 times
that amount, or $24-$30 billion. As to shares outstanding, I would
use 500 million as to be conservative. AMRN may do acquisitions,
raise additional cash for expansion purposes, and of course continue
to reward management. So stock price wise I think it would trade
for around $50-$60 a share. That would be a fantastic return of up
to around 200% from recent prices.

If anyone wants a good comparable stock I would look at ABBV. Why?
ABBV has the best selling drug in the world today which does about
$20 billion in annual revenues. ABBV sells at a PE of around 10 x
this years EPS and 9 X next years estimated EPS. The issue for
ABBV is that their patent protection will expire in the US in 2023,
but is a complex situation. At ABBV's peak price of around $125 it
was trading at about 6 x its revenues for that year. ABBV trades
at around 4 x revenues. My reason for mentioning ABBV is because
it is the closest example I can find of what AMRN may evolve
into based on a GIA scenario.

[HerbieRay]

I'm 100% with your approach but my timing is a little more delayed. I think those PPS numbers are more appropriate for 2023 2024.

Some try to predict based on DCF analysis. That might be right for a buyout, but I don't see one.

I believe revenue and revenue growth rate will be the drivers, and the max product of the two should occur sometime in my time frame.

I could be wrong.

HR