Replies to post #37252 on Economic Collapse

[basserdan]

8:30a Chicago Fed national activity index weakens to -0.29 in February from -0.25 in January. 3 Month Moving Average -0.18 vs +0.16
Highlights
February's sharp drop in nonfarm payroll growth to only 20,000 was a major factor behind a minus 0.29 showing for the national activity index, a result below Econoday's consensus range. Employment indicators pulled February's index 0.10 lower in the month vs a positive 0.07 point contribution in January. Production-related indicators, at minus 0.16, also pulled February lower though slightly less so than January, at minus 0.29. Personal consumption & housing was also negative, at minus 0.06 from January's minus 0.03, with sales/orders/inventories the only component in positive ground and not by much, at plus 0.03 vs 0.01 in January. This report offers an early summation of recent indicators and the results are not upbeat, underscored by the 3-month average which is at minus 0.18.

Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative
index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

[basserdan]

10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey:
Production Index - 11.5 actual vs 10.1 prior
General Activity Index - 8.3 vs 13.1 prior

Highlights
The general business activity index came in at a solid 8.3 in March though below Econoday's consensus for 9.8 to indicate a slightly slower rate of growth than February's 13.1. And incoming orders are weak with new orders showing only modest monthly growth at 2.4 vs February's 6.9 while a separate reading on the growth rate of new orders is now in negative ground for the first time since December 2016.
Yet production, at least for now, continues to post solid gains, up 1.4 points to 11.5, as does employment which held steady at a strong 13.1. Input costs at 20.4 and wages at 30.1 remain elevated.
Despite the strength in production and employment, today's report is mixed as trouble for new orders points to trouble ahead for general activity and is line with a large body of data pointing to a slow start for this year's factory sector.

Definition
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey tracks factory activity in Texas on a monthly basis. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. Responses are aggregated into balance indexes where positive values generally indicate growth while negative values generally indicate contraction. About 100 manufacturers regularly participate in the survey.