8:30a Chicago Fed national activity index weakens to -0.29 in February from -0.25 in January. 3 Month Moving Average -0.18 vs +0.16
Highlights
February's sharp drop in nonfarm payroll growth to only 20,000 was a major factor behind a minus 0.29 showing for the national activity index, a result below Econoday's consensus range. Employment indicators pulled February's index 0.10 lower in the month vs a positive 0.07 point contribution in January. Production-related indicators, at minus 0.16, also pulled February lower though slightly less so than January, at minus 0.29. Personal consumption & housing was also negative, at minus 0.06 from January's minus 0.03, with sales/orders/inventories the only component in positive ground and not by much, at plus 0.03 vs 0.01 in January. This report offers an early summation of recent indicators and the results are not upbeat, underscored by the 3-month average which is at minus 0.18.
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative
index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Dan 
