Replies to post #182213 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[marzan]

ggwpq, Baker Bros are another ruthless hedge. Until they swallow all the call premiums they sold using their covered calls, they are not going to tell JT Go. They will fleece all the retail call buyers first in this process and once they are done, they will let JT sell the Company. The only time they couldn't stop much was Sep 24th when the topline news broke out because JT guided to release it end of 3rd quarter. That is a huge news, BB's can't manipulate with their army of machinery but they did after Nov 10th and March 18th because we already know V passed the Reduce It trial. In conclusion I like to say call buyers are the biggest idiots here. This is from my world of experience.

[couldbebetter]

ggwpq, What was said by Mr. Yee was, interest in AMRN by BP had been
"tabled" until after the sNDA was filed. What I suspect is that
management may have been engaged with "exclusive" negotiations
and the comment about interest being "tabled" may have been a
diversionary tactic by JT. Any deal that gets disclosed will
most likely ignite a bidding war. If BP is waiting around to
first see exactly what label the FDA grants will both waste
valuable time and potentially lead to an even more expensive
deal. The sooner some BP gets the process started the more
likely it could end sooner as well (or not!)

One problem is that the first bidder will be facing other
likely bidders. One question I do not have an answer for
is this: What would prevent an interested BP from buying a
massive stake in AMRN to give them a bit more leverage
over other bidders? Assuming it were legal, if I were a BP
CEO I'd be buying a huge amount of call options and sell puts.
Before having to report my stake I'd buy as much stock as I
legally could buy.

I too would like to see confirmation of negotiations by a
reputable source. Perhaps AMRN is good at not letting
material info leak out. The one thing that keeps me skeptical
of a buyout is the (relatively) low price. Anyway, it is fun
to speculate and try to put the puzzle pieces together.

[rafunrafun]

GG - I read that post, it was awesome. It gives an interesting perspective. But because it was their timeline, it doesn't mean that ours will be anything similar. Nonetheless, it's still nice to read. A couple of things:

Yee - that's Thero is being Thero. I'm 100% certain that if Pfizer calls, the phone will be answered.

The original offer by Roche to buy Spark at PPS $70 was NOT a result of the PPS being ~$40 during that time frame and Roche adding 75% premium. That offer (PPS $70 or the dollar amount in the billions ($70 × outstanding shares)) was based on Roche's valuation of Spark (future cash flow); not based on PPS that day.

Imagine if the PPS dropped from $40 to $30 on no news, do you think that the initial offer would also drop? Of course not, the valuation does not change because the PPS changes.

HD gave a great example:

H.C. Wainwright has $51 price target on Amarin shares … since Nov 12, 2018 … the pps was between $12.44 - 23.25 … but (their calculated) future cash-flow was the same during this period.

Update on Yee: I read CBB's post and that's not what Yee said. If he said that interest in Amarin by BP has been tabled, that's clearly BS because he would never know that.