Replies to post #217720 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[RJL1998]

If I get this straight you’re saying approval is highly probably, but the stock will have a hard time exceeding $1 because of negative spin and timing of actual commercialization? I have a hard time reconciling the scenario you laid out but it is pretty creative, I’ll give you that.

[longfellow95]

I, for one, am prepared for your anticipated scenario to play out to a greater or lesser extent.
Hopefully lesser..

It is just being realistic, imo.

[Doc logic]

Umibe5690,

I can see where you would think I missed your point but I was probably too subtle with mine about valuation. When a significant target population can be identified early on treatment (CTL response in L trial) or before treatment (Direct patent claim based on DC cytokine production levels which may translate to L) it's like saying to the market and regulators "Hey, this is how big my market is going to be in all the cancer indications and the unmet need in GBM gets me in with or without PFS or OS because we have a fat long tail of responders that we can identify". Remember, L and Direct are the "same" according to Linda so the idea is that cross application on all solid tumors is implied and that point will be hammered home with any good news.

Now I would ask you to remember that Bohsie's positive PFS analysis came prior to adjudication and without the negative impact of early undifferentiated methylation status patients being taken into account. PFS is going to look a lot different than any 2013 or 2015 interim safety analysis would indicate based on old standards especially if all SOC/placebo patients had evented or were crossed over to treatment by the end of 2016.

Now if CTL response or Direct patent claims were not present as evidence that patient populations that will respond to treatment can and will be selected for, then I would agree with you that too many question marks would remain and leave price vulnerable. This is not the case, however so patient population responders based on the long tail at a minimum can and will be tabulated for valuation purposes across cancer indications because any validation is platform validation. The only reason that this is not being done loudly now is that those who are paid to speak to the larger community don't get paid by NWBO and NWBO is not allowed to speak for themselves.

One last point and that is PFS can look vulnerable when OS is not maturing fast enough when PFS is validated or when PFS is not enough on it's own. It can also be made to look bad if equivalency of OS must be validated from one place to another. Besides this, all negative arguments become exacerbated when a company must remain silent about a hold because speaking about it would leave them exposed to a hostile takeover. You did not make mention of this in your post and I believe it is a critical unaccounted for element behind the source of most investor doubt. I believe company silence about the hold for the sake of self determination allowed those willing to do a little leg work with what NWBO shared to find the truth within all the possibilities. Picking out the exact truth and having it validated sooner rather than later would be ideal for some but then the opportunity would have been lost for others. Best wishes.