I wish I would have caught 10%, but I only got 4%. I hope I didn't confuse things.
So there were a couple of things as the set that are important.
Fundamentally, natgas was being reported at a two-year low for price. The chart itself was looking like a significant low. And the weather models were reporting a significant cold spell for the first week of March. Where I missed out is they started to report that last Friday. There were a couple of nuanced entry points but only on shorter time periods.
It was the fundamental picture that I picked up on over the weekend and the Monday night futures were pointing to a gap up. My entry was delayed and I could have easily gotten another 2 - 3%. Oh well.
Once I went on alert I switch to a shorter chart. I like 20 min but should have been watching the 5 min or at least but the absolute open.
1) With the fundamental situation plus the weather models, Friday should have been the day. The Should Have was when price crossed above the 9 and 26 almost on the same candle.
2) The Could Have was when the 9 was definitively above the 26
3) But I had to wait the long weekend before I did get in on Tuesday. By that time not only the cold wave was "known" but the warm up right after was also "known".
My hope of a spike was diminished and I decided to sell on the Thursday mini spike.
It's interesting to look at the Daily again in retrospect. I actually bought on the first aggressive buy signal when price cross the 9 blue line. This wasn't a screaming buy by any means but knowing we were near a historical low made it a lower risk trade in my mind.
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