Replies to post #175769 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Biobillionair]

SB-Every BP with a cardiovascular team "needs" Vascepa and Amarin. GILD is no different from a PFE, AZN, GSK, MRK or a long list of others.... This doesn't change the fact that Amarin doesn't need to sell and the Vascepa cardiovascular program is NOW GREATLY de-risked. As a drug candidate is de-risked any would be suitor is going to pay closer to retail.

Here's the biggest problem with Amarin M&A: DEFINING RETAIL VALUE OF VASCEPA!!!

I don't think the Vascepa market can be properly defined until at least 2 full years of sales with cardiovascular treatment label for Vascepa.

An M&A will have to contain milestone CVRs based on future sales....Any and ALL of the above BP's can do this deal. Any M&A deal will be either MASSIVE (bidding war) or a long negotiated complex CVR. (long because of the number of interested parties)

My point.....Don't hold your breath on a massive bidding war and huge BO price...I think it will be a complex CVR and likely not anytime soon.

Amarin is going to launch Vascepa into cardiovascular market and perhaps grow into the next GILD.

BB

[north40000]

NASH and NAFLD are multi-billion markets. There are currently no FDA approved medications to treat those indications. GILD has been looking a long time for a medication that would satisfy that unmet need.

Does Vascepa have sufficient potency in suppression of inflammation to warrant GILD to think seriously about a license, collaboration, or buyout activity with Amarin? Needless to say, such potential would be enormous when added to the CVD activity shown by Reduce-It.

There is substantial “competition” from other entities; the potential is summarized by either a market- watch or Benzinga article last January 2019. I read the article last evening; it is located in my IRA TDA website under GILD news.