Replies to post #213280 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[MI Dendream]

I should add that I believe the KM curves that have been shared are on unadjusted data. If it were adjusted data the math would be too difficult for me.

[abeta]

1) 12 LTFU patients per ASCO 2018 presentation
2) 28.2% KM derived 3 year survival presented in November after which company states they are moving towards data lock

331-12= 319*0.282=90 thus 90 patients had reached 3 year survival by October 2018. (That is how KM derived numbers work, people frequently forget about LTFU impact)

331 - 12 - 90 = 229

Therefore, I believe that fewer than 4 patients that reached 3 years had passed away by October cut off. As a result, I am convinced OS HR is positive, 3 year survival is positive and I have previously shared my belief that PFS was positive in AUG 2015

.

331 = Trial
12 = Lost for the moment
90 = reached 36 months survival

Based on the above - how do you get to ...

fewer than 4 patients that reached 3 years had passed away by October cut off

And am I right in thinking that 90 + 4 = 94 made it to 36 months
and then 4 of those died.

regards

[beartrap12]

Wow, MI Dendream! I think you have something. I did not realize that you had to subtract the LTFU patients and could not find that number, but I believe you if you say 12. So if you subtract those 12 from 331 you get 319, and they said that 28.2% survived to 3 years. That’s 90 patients of 319. However they need 94 to die to get to 233 events (deaths).
Thanks for pointing this out to us!