* will these symbols surpass their 200-day simple moving average by a large margin, and then reside within the upper BB for a period of weeks?
( the /ES S&P 500 index futures' 200-day simple moving average remains a few points higher than this week's price high for the /ES as the 200-day sma continues to rise for the March 2019 /ES contract )
================= chart status overview - February 5, 2019 closing update
what is new in today's February 5th equity price action is that --
1. S&P 500 index daily chart --
* $SPX 150-day and 126-day ( 2 quarters of price action ) simple moving averages are now nearby
the S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Percent daily chart provides evidence by the various chart elements of a constructive argument for a continued price advance, though a nearby pause in the index price actions would be a customary and reasonable expectation, though a pullback of any size is not necessary based on the current Bollinger Band setups for these index price actions
the $OEX is joining others which have recently advanced above the 100-day simple moving average
SPY QQQ S&P 1500 S&P 500 Equally Weighted index - $SPXEW and RSP NYSE Composite index Nasdaq Composite index Dow Jones Industrials Average S&P 400 Mid Cap index ------------------------------------------------------ Banking index - $BKX and the S&P 600 Small Cap index have not yet surpassed the 100-day simple moving average
15-month simple moving average is nearby for 6 indices - February 6, 2019 -
and the $NYA - NYSE Composite index - is under performing the other 5 indices relative to its proximity to the 15-month sma ..
it is not unusual for $NYA to lag the other indices for a period of days or weeks, based on past history over the years because of the influence of financials, energy and materials stocks within the $NYA ... though eventually catching up to the other indices' performance is usually required for the US equity market to stage an advance with actual staying power
* several indices reside above their 15-month sma, which supports the bullish case while the condition continues
S&P 500 net Advance-Decline line with the A-D line's 50,2 and 21,2 %B's for potential top spotting OR for potential bottom spotting OR for spotting trending and near-term durable advances or declines
SPY weekly revised for the February 7, 2019 decline low, so far today -
* the weekly 21 simple moving average is providing support, for now ( $267.86 at this moment = 21-week sma, $266.31 = 21-week ema )
* the $OEX is under performing the $SPX for multiple weeks, and the question remains how the current week will finalize vs. the recent weeks for the $OEX to $SPX ratio
February 8th - price action for 5 indices resides in the a.m. near the 21,2 lower Bollinger Band ... bulls eventually need to see a bounce which has staying power
February 7th, the mid-day bounces for the 5 indices are pausing/halting at the declining 15-minute 21-day simple moving average ... as of 1 hour before today's market close
not shown on the chart -- the $NYA resides below its 15-minute 200 simple moving average by the price bar closes for the 1st time since January 28th ... check out the other symbols for this metric
===================
daily cumulative Advance-Decline line and the A-D daily values in histogram format for both the S&P 500 and for the NYSE
chart #3 - S&P 500 net Advance-Decline line with the 50,2 Bollinger Band showing a current bullish status for this internal until the A-D line is below its 50-day sma as a minimum event -
chart #4 - the S&P 1500 has closed several days above its 100-day sma which is bullish and closed above the rising 15-day sma since early January which is bullish
$SPXEW - S&P 500 Equally Weighted index daily chart -
* 89-day ema and 50-day ema -- bullish while $SPXEW remains above, which is the current condition
* 200-day ema -- seven daily closes above, which is required for the continued bullish case
the 200-day simple moving average value area has acted as resistance since mid-October 2018
Note the 200-day sma has zero slope since early January 2019, and the bullish case needs to see this moving average eventually display an upward slope
** the lowest chart element displays the $SPXEW to $SPX daily ratio, which is generally rising since the final trading day in December 2018 ... meaning broadening participation by the 500 stocks which make up the Market Capitalization Size weighted S&P 500 index
$SPX 2813.89 is one key horizontal inflection level based on the prior daily closes for the S&P 500 index
$SPX $2690.16 is a key level which the bullish case depends upon for a continuing stair stepping higher price structure to be alive and well in the long-term
$SPX daily closes chart, with customized chartsettings updated for the March 1, 2019 close
$SPX $2709.80 = the unfilled gap below last week's price action
* the bullish case remains alive and well while the $SPX price action remains above the $2714.00 level, and declines which do not violate this level with daily closes are to be considered "bait for the bears"
$SPX daily chart with $VIX and the $VIX 63,1 Bollinger Band
$2819.75 = /ES futures Globex high, March 3/4, 2019 - printed near the Sunday open
$2819.75 is the /ES futures Globex high, March 3/4, 2019 - printed near the Sunday open
(see the summary at the end of this email of the 2nd half 2018 /ES price action key decline lows which now in 2019 must be surpassed on a lasting basis to confirm the current multi-week advance has a high probability for further upside staying power)
shown below is the SPY daily chart displaying potentially negative setup by Carl Swenlin's A-D breadth & volume oscillators -- as the lowest visible chart element in this SPY daily chart, Carl Swenlin's net Advance-Decline breadth oscillator & A-D volume oscillator for the S&P 500 index declined on most days in the week ended March 1, 2019
which does not support a high probability for a near-term bullish outcome for the SPY and for the $SPX price action until these two oscillators return to the upside while also remaining above their zero line ...
the time is approaching the turn back up by the two oscillators either takes place or not without an ever increasing opportunity to experience significant price damage at some near-term future day/week
in the overall context - vigilance is required vs. the /ES futures all-sessions and day session low for the week ended March 1, 2019 of $2775 keeping in mind that $2767 to $2788 is an inflection zone of great importance relative to the future technical developments for the /ES the SPY and the $SPX price action with XLF - S&P 500 Financial sector - likely to determine this outcome for the S&P 500 index price action.
XLK is also highly influential in the mix of considerations.
Not constructive for a high probability of an immediate continued price advance by XLF in the coming days is the fact that XLF's downside price reversal on March 1st took place after printing a new intraday price high for 2019 while its largest influential stock component, Berkshire Hathaway, closed the day near its high of day and XLF closed the day near its low of day.
XLF daily Point and Figure chart displays an undeclared overall setup, and can break either Up or Down from this price configuration ... time is approaching the near-term and intermediate-term bullish case for XLF must be proven or not
smoothed bar closes for the 1-minute NYSE $TICK for an 8-day duration will be useful in the future in this combo which displays the price action for five indices with the 200,3 standard deviation Bollinger Band -
/ES 2775 level actually printed today Wednesday February 27th = the SPY 10-day ema price value as well - as of the achievement of the day session low on Wednesday February 27, 2019
the SPY 10-day ema - day session only - is a rising moving average at this time, so if this advance continues the value for the EMA will continue higher while /ES futures $2775 price level remains the all-sessions /ES price low, at this time, for the week ended March 1, 2019
at the moment that the February 27th intraday low of 277.48 was actually printed, I believe the SPY 10-day ema value was approximately 277.39 or 277.40, while the Fidelity Trade Armor function on the Fidelity Active Trader Pro platform shows the 10-day look-back analysis calculating the appropriate horizontal support value is at 277.40
and the 100-day look-back analysis for the major horizontal resistance next above Tuesday's day session high is 280.40 ( ** notice that value resides only slightly below Monday's new 2019 intraday high print for SPY ** ).
SPY daily with the Feb. 27th intraday low marked with a Pink H line, and the 10-day EMA is visible -
S&P 1500 Composite index price action now resides above the important upper boundary of the
599-609 bull/bear divider price zone located in the middle of the price ranges of prior highs and lows
* bears need price back below the 21,2 daily lower BB for a long duration lasting weeks AND a lasting hold below 599 price level =============================== On Fri, Feb 1, 2019 at 2:01 AM --
net Advance-Decline lines with other analytical data sets for 5 major US indices, with numerous related charts -
( the A-D lines are cumulative from a floating start date, based on the duration of the chart period which I have selected, while many analysts often select a fixed date from which the accumulation of the A-D math actually starts ... for this purpose, I have only fixed the chart period in number of weeks that are plotted on each A-D chart, so the accumulation start date moves forward by one day upon the completion of another trading day of price action )
selected key charts for evaluating the US equity market as a whole -
/ES S&P 500 index futures $2712.25 / 2690.00 levels must eventually be surpassed on a lasting basis, OR the bears continue to rule the day for many months or years to come ...
/ES 2548 region is the next major lower level of some significance which must be held during future declines in order to gain upside traction having highly probable staying power on a very long-term basis
pullback lows by /ES S&P 500 futures of interest since June 2018:
2775.00 - all-sessions low in the week ended March 1, 2019 2316.75 - late December 2018 low 2401.00 - Sunday December 23rd low near the globex open 2409.25 - December 21 very late day 2441.50 - mid day 2476.25 - December 20 morning globex session 2489.50 - December 19 day session 2531.00 - December 18 late day 2533.xx - December 17 late day
* the sharp decline lower started after October 5, 2018 and continued into October 26, 2018, followed by a brief pause
2712.25 - in week ended October 12 2873.25 - October 5 late day 2887.75 - October 4 mid-day 2865.00 - September 7 a.m. 2877.50 - September 5 2885.50 - September 4 2891.75 - August 31 2876.75 - low in week ended August 31 2850.00 2831.00's 2803.00 2791 August low 2790 late July low 2788 to 2767 = the often tested horizontal support zone in June to July 2018
key chart collection #2 posted without my interpretation comments, that enables my review of this chart set from any mobile device I have handy when recreating outdoors -
SPY weekly with 15,2 Bollinger Band and the 50,9.4 EMA envelope for using to locate potential top & bottom "breaks" OR "failures to launch" which are:
1. likely to continue in the current price direction 2. likely to reverse the current price direction with an outcome that is more than a slight and brief change in the price action
* the ratio currently displays a sequence of lower highs since February 2020, and the bullish case is somewhat weakened by the starklack of equal participation in the price advances which do occur when the $OEX is outperforming the entire 500 stocks comprising the S&P 500 index
* as of the Tuesday September 1, 2020 close the weekly RSI-14 remains below the important 60 value for multiple weeks/months ... bulls need a lasting hold above 60 for the RSI-14
* for a bullish case to re-establish itself for AAPL and for SPY & QQQ the AAPL daily RSI-14 needs to hold above the important 60 level for multiple consecutive days/weeks
* bears need a lasting hold below the RSI-14 40 level, while bulls must defend the 40 level on a lasting basis
** bulls must hold the cumulative net Advancers minus Decliners lines for each index above the 50-day SMA on a lasting basis or bears have an opportunity to continue the price damage beyond Monday September 21, 2020
monthly ITBM for $SPX in Point & Figure chart form -
* Carl Swenlin's Intermediate Term Advance-Decline Breath Momentum continues to decline in September 2020, and now the ITBM resides briefly below its zero line
charts above display cumulative net Advance-Decline breadth lines which are the cumulative total of daily net Advance-Decline values
The McClellan Oscillator is the difference between the 19-EMA & 39-EMA of daily advances minus declines. It reflects the short-term strength and direction of market liquidity.
A longer-term view is provided by the McClellan Summation Index, which is the cumulative total of the daily McClellan Oscillator values. These indicators move within a trading range and often identify the overbought/oversold condition of the market
( McSum = McClellan Summation Index )
the dominant rule is: price will eventually follow the direction of the McSum, except for brief periods of price divergence
The McSum is neutral at the zero line, bullish while above, and confirmed bearish while below zero
* the distance down to the McSum zero line currently represents one objective measure of the minimum downside risk
Confirmed sell signals are a lasting decline below the McSum zero line, though price action has usually declined by a large amount by the time zero is reached from the McSum peak above.
Large distances between the McSum daily chart values represent acceleration events in the A-D breadth decline or advance, and the follow-on price impact has a high correlation with the McSum's direction, and usually has several days staying power
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