Replies to post #209921 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[longfellow95]

Thanks Lykiri.
It all kind of suggests that there may have been an interim analysis in Summer '15.

But that is not to say that they asked for or got a full report on comparative data for both PFS and OS. They may have just ask the question; 'is there any reason why we should not continue this trial?'

I really don't know.

[longfellow95]

Hi Lykiri.

Thanks for digging that out.
That may have been the reference, though the one I think I recall seeing, specifically mentioned an efficacy analysis being upcoming.

In any event, I think it is a reasonable hypothesis that there was some kind of IA in early to mid-Summer 2015.
AV has long suggested that they may have received a futility finding on the PFS endpoint at that time, and that the partial hold was somehow linked to such a finding.
I don't accept that, though it wouldn't surprise me that they learned that PFS was not trending as strongly in favor of treatment as they of course hoped for. Maybe running neck and neck, (due to the pseudo-progression in the treatment arm, leading to incorrect progression calls).
The partial hold is so unusual, being an apparent hold on randomizing any further patients to the control arm. But with apparent consent to continue 'randomizing' to treatment.
Now that sort of hold just does not fit with a futility finding, as has been pointed out several times. It's the obvious flaw in AV's argument.
LP made a statement that they would submit required information in the necessary timescale.
I got the strong impression that LP didn't think there was any sort of fundamental problem, rather some form of unfortunate error or oversight had occurred. And then NW made his remark, about nothing being untoward.

But then, the PhaseV report came out and then NW shot himself in the foot with his public remarks about management inadequacies.There was a concerted campaign of disinformation about a 'failed trial', and the lawsuits kept on coming.
The share price went into freefall.

I'm convinced that a large group of shorts knew exactly what was going on at the time, and shorted the hell out of the stock (backed by powerful interests).

Back in April time the share price had been flying high and everything appeared rosy.
A situation that the shorts and their allies could not tolerate.
AF bashing then notched up, and the rash of lawsuits commenced around this time.
So, some form of conspiracy is still very much in the frame for me.
Senti's recent findings on the Furbergs is just one pointer in that direction.

It's no surprise that NWBO elected to adopt a virtual lockdown on communication being under such attack.
Then instead of the hold being in place for a few weeks, it remains in force for well over a year, effectively forcing NWBO to abandon the prospect of further recruitment up to the planned 348.

More recent shareholders really won't be aware of how things were before this whole chain of events occurred.
Back then, the company communicated much more confidently and openly with frequent progress updates, and well-reported conference appearances.

In my opinion, they were forced to go into communication lockdown mode, and that situation largely remains today.


Hopefully there is a day of reckoning on the horizon!

Time will tell..