Replies to post #223285 on Biotech Values

[rfj1862]

One can see that this clinical failure is significant from an investment standpoint by turning the result on its head: i.e., if the trial in question had succeeded, it would surely have caused a material bump in ABBV’s (and even JNJ’s) valuation. So, the absence of such a bump is itself a notable event.

I disagree, you can't stand it on its head because it's asymmetric.

Failure = expected.
Positive result = wildly unexpected.

When a drug is tested in multiple solid tumor types, pancreatic is always the first to report and is always a failure.

I don't think failure of any drug in pancreatic says anything about its efficacy in other tumor types.