Replies to post #208190 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[marzan]

longfellow, yes I agree with you and Dan and thus essentially agreeing with meirluc that taking the Data Lock to 46 months post surgery or even longer no problem for me as long as like Dan says my investment is not busted rushing it too early. I am glad to see more consensus from the Longs here to standby Linda Powers and the SAB in arriving the Unblinding / Data Lock timing decisions. However, with all the unfolding we see here from meirluc, lf, senti, doc logic, flipper et al, my investment cannot be busted because we are seeing blended numbers soo good that trial failure is very remote. I see topline results might come out sooner. may be LP might surprise us by next Wednesday Jan 23rd with some concrete news.

[meirluc]

longfellow, I am having trouble following your logic. Are you saying that even after let's say 46 months post last surgery the trial should remain blinded and if so for how much longer? I am not sure that NWBO is at this point concerned primarily with the mOS. I am guessing let's say a derived 5 year survival of 24% for trial, and 10% for placebo (approx 20% for the blended trial), and that would be just great. This is just an example of course and the results may not be quite that good. But the point is that at 46 months post last surgery, the estimate for long term survival of the tail (i.e. 5 years) could be easily estimated. It could also be done a few month earlier. Anyway, several posters here believe that NWBO will already do the unblinding by March followed by top line results. However, I am probably missing something so let me know what it is.