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Replies to post #71799 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
01/19/19 10:38 AM
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jan. 18, 2019: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 267071 and is trading up about 6.53% for the year from last year's closing of 250685. So far, we have been trading up for the past 4 days since the reaction low made on Mon. Jan. 14, 2019, but the key low was made 17 days ago on Wed. Dec. 26, 2018 at 234658. The S&P 500 Cash Index has been in an uptrend for the past 4 days closing above the previous session's high in a very sharp move up posting a gain on a closing basis of 1.31%. The market remains quite strong above all our main system indicators but we do see some resistance at 268437. This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. However, an opening BELOW 266152 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temprorarily.
We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 264398 settling at 263596 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 266364 which we have now closed above suggesting the market is starting to possibly breakout to the upside if it can be maintain in the next trading session. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 269700. Normally, when you open back below this resistance number or closed back below it then the rally is losing momentum. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. This market is currently in a dramatic Phase Transition whereby it has rallied for the past 9 years scoring a 341% gain. To date, we have continue to trade within last year's range of 294091 to 294091. While we are still trading more toward the upper resistance, a closing below the previous year's low should imply a continued decline into 2021 remains possible whereas a closing above last year's high would signal a resumption of the uptrend is possible. We also need a higher closing at least above 250685 to suggest the market is holding for now and likewise a closing below this level will warn of weakness. We do see the next two targets in time forming in 2021 followed by 2022
The historical major high took place here in 2018 and we have so far this year remained trading within last year's range in a consolidating pattern.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 604411 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 276089 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 241560. This provides a 12% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 352911 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 30%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 267071, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 3.26% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come February in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 234658 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 280018 to 234658. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 258932. To date, this rally has been up for four daily sessions and it has technically closed above projected support at 266994.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 24th at 234658, which was down 14 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 17th. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of December 24th, which has been a move of.1304%. Distinctly, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 7 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 3 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 281515, which was created during the week of November 5th. The previous weekly level low was 234658, which formed during the week of December 24th, and only a break of 252456 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 271051 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 294091 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 235271 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-341 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 344 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 294091, which was created during September 2018. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
