Abet Chichi2

[DiscoverGold]

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Summary Analysis »» STILL WEAK
By: Marty Armstrong | January 12, 2019

Analysis for the Week of January 14, 2019

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 11, 2019: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 259626 and is trading up about 3.56% for the year from last year's closing of 250685. Thus far, we traded down the previous day. Immediately, the market was an inside trading session warning of a brief pause in trend. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. This market is currently in a dramatic Phase Transition whereby it has rallied for the past 9 years scoring a 341% gain. So far, we have exceeded last year's high of 294091 reaching 3432514 intraday. This suggests that a closing above the previous year's high should imply a continued rally into 2020 remains possible. A closing beneath 250685 would imply a possible correction into 2020 with a retest of the upside come 2021.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 68 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 1974 from which we have witnessed a 45 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2009 from which we have experienced a 10 year rally.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 604416 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 276089 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 241560. This provides a 12% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 352911 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 30%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 259626, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 5.96% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come March in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 234658 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 280018 to 234658. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 256616. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 24th at 234658, which was down 14 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 17th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of December 24th, which has been a move of.0996%. Even so, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 7 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 281515, which was created during the week of November 5th. The previous weekly level low was 234658, which formed during the week of December 24th, and only a break of 244396 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 271051 above the market.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 294091 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during September 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 235271 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-824 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 827 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 294091, which was created during September 2018. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 259462 above the market.

• DiscoverGold

Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries