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oneragman

01/12/19 9:50 AM

#171874 RE: rafunrafun #171871

raf, we will see $30 this year...without a buyout. Hopefully those who are willing to accept that will sell and be happy. I just don't see the BB's selling anytime soon. Glad they are involved. As HG has said, it will be a deal that can't be refused. I don't see $40 qualifying.
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Pwrinv

01/12/19 9:52 AM

#171875 RE: rafunrafun #171871

I think you are absolutely correct.

Another misconception is that BP will pay now for what Vascepa sales might be in the future....BP will pay for what they believe they could get Vascepa sales to after discounting NPV, market risks, regulatory risk and economic risks.... Other unproven indications will be significantly discounted because of all the above risks, and they are unproven. $100 today is unrealistic.
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ggwpq

01/12/19 11:34 AM

#171898 RE: rafunrafun #171871

Raf, it's just that I haven't seen a M&A deal over $5B with BO price over 3 times the previous day's close. Market could be wrong but can't be that wrong. For $100 BO, AMRN needs to go up to at least $34 first. It's Newton's 4th law, i.e. BO math.
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Anonymous Fish

01/12/19 12:48 PM

#171921 RE: rafunrafun #171871

The largest biotech acquisition premium ever paid was 159%. And you are arguing for a premium of near 500%???

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/allergans-tobira-acquisition-represents-highest-112153149.html
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ChrisInSF

01/12/19 1:11 PM

#171925 RE: rafunrafun #171871

Sorry, but that's an idealistic view. Good luck convincing your board that you're going to pay $80 food something rational investors are valuing at $12. They'll either laugh at you, or more appropriately say, "fine, it might be worth $80, but let that company either let them faulter later and need is more (resulting in potentiality a more harmonious deal), or let them de risk this a bit by successfully filing, and getting further down the path.

Sure, maybe it goes to $40 in the meantime, but we still value it at $80, so that's fine.

If you've been in board rooms, there are a lot of reasons you so have issues buying something at $80 that traded at $12 a week ago.

Sure, this is a very special drug and anything can happen, but my point was more the difficulty arising from the recent price action at getting a deal done here vs post filing / approval / maybe FastTrack / approval, etc.

All those milestones, among others, derisk the deal.

So if PFE can only justify $40, and AMRN/BB won't take less than $80, then you just put together a timeline, acheive milestones, which drives up the share price, reducing the premium.

Easy to get sued or have your stock languish for years when you do a deal too early at a monstor premium.

I love AMRN, just trying to weigh M&a angles with a dose of realism.