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longfellow95

01/11/19 11:38 PM

#208077 RE: flipper44 #208055

Ah Flip: I think I now know what you are saying on this.

Are you saying that anybody alive today is already in the TOP 100?
And that anyone who dies after today will definitely stay in the TOP 100?

This would mean that most or all of the surviving 2015 entrants broke into the top group between JMT data collection and SNO data collection.
Which suggests that you pass a threshold to join that group as soon as soon as you survive beyond about 36 months.
I was working on the premise that there were still a few more months to go before the surviving late 2015 entrants broke in to the TOP 100, and displaced others.

At least I think that I now understand the rationale behind you saying the TOP 100 is now fixed.

I think there may be just a handful of very late trial entrant survivors still to break in, but would say that the TOP 100 membership (but not the median), will be fixed in a couple of months, if it is not already.

The actual final median will presumably be fixed in stone when we are down to the last 50 survivors, which, I think we agree, could still be a few years away.