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Replies to post #65026 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
01/05/19 9:37 AM
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 4, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 673886 and is trading up about 1.56% for the year from last year's closing of 663527. So far, we have been trading up for the past 9 days since the low made on Mon. Dec. 24, 2018. The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in an uptrend for the past 9 days closing above the previous session's high in a very sharp move up posting a gain on a closing basis of 4.26%. The market remains negative on our system indicators with still some underlying support at 665995 with the overhead resistance standing at 703481. This market is also trading mostly above the bank of eight moving average indicators suggesting it remains in a mixed posture for now. This market still has not yet exceeded the last key high of 686886 established back on 12/19/2018. However, an opening BELOW 665746 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temprorarily.
We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 674207 settling at 646350 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 663083 which we have now closed above suggesting the market is starting to possibly breakout to the upside if it can be maintain in the next trading session. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 680574. Normally, when you open back below this resistance number or closed back below it then the rally is losing momentum. So, watch this number which is dynamic for it changes with each session. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. This market is currently in a dramatic Phase Transition whereby it has rallied for the past 9 years scoring a 542% gain. So far, we have exceeded last year's high of 813330 reaching 6274539 intraday. This suggests that a closing above thre previous year's high should imply a continued rally into 2023 remains possible. A closing beneath 663527 would imply a possible correction with a retest of the upside come 2024.
During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 45 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 2002 from which we have witnessed a 17 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2009 from which we have experienced a 10 year rally. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 9 years ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have a bullish market in motion for the past 35 years. The magnitude of this advance suggest we are dealing with a Plateau Move rather than a mere Phase Transition. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 1816874 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 733280 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 631342. This provides a 13% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 1046146 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 648413. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 38%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 673886, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 8.09% beneath that level.
Our timing models warn that a turning point is due come February in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 619016 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 748651 to 619016. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly..
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 27th at 813330, which was up 53 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st of 2017. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of December 24th, which has been a move of.0853%. On the other hand, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 17 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the weekly level was 813330, which was created during the week of August 27th. The previous weekly level low was 619016, which formed during the week of December 24th, and only a break of 619016 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 760424 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 813330 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during August 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 580514 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-570 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 574 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 813330, which was created during August 2018. The previous monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
