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Replies to post #65032 on S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends
01/12/19 10:36 AM
THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jan. 11, 2019: NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 697147 and is trading up about 5.06% for the year from last year's closing of 663527. Thus far, we traded down the previous day. Immediately, the market was an inside trading session warning of a brief pause in trend. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. This market is currently in a dramatic Phase Transition whereby it has rallied for the past 9 years scoring a 542% gain. So far, we have exceeded last year's high of 813330 reaching 6361469 intraday. This suggests that a closing above the previous year's high should imply a continued rally into 2023 remains possible. A closing beneath 663527 would imply a possible correction into 2023 with a retest of the upside come 2024.
During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 45 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 2002 from which we have witnessed a 17 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2009 from which we have experienced a 10 year rally. This market on the yearly level has been making new highs since the last low established 9 years ago which has been a series of successive advances. The last 4 highs have been progressively making higher highs implying we have a bullish market in motion for the past 35 years. The magnitude of this advance suggest we are dealing with a Plateau Move rather than a mere Phase Transition. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals thus far.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 1816874 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 733280 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 631342. This provides a 13% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 1046146 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 648413. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 38%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 697147, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 4.92% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come February in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August 2018. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 619016 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 748651 to 619016. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 685560. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 27th at 813330, which was up 53 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st of 2017. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of December 24th, which has been a move of.1198%. Distinctly, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Inspecting the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 17 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 813330, which was created during the week of August 27th. The previous weekly level low was 619016, which formed during the week of December 24th, and only a break of 645713 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 760424 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 813330 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during August 2018. Critical support still underlies this market at 580514 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-570 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 574 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 813330, which was created during August 2018. The previous monthly level low was 420976, which formed during February 2016. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
