The dynamics of stress, leading to sleep losses, leading to stage 1 AD cycle start and the U.S. death curve you have shown are linked as a system(I claim). This is a self reinforcing model dynamic that seems intuitively obvious. In an airplane it is known as a "death spiral". In that example as the pilot pulls back on the stick to stop the spiral dive he actually tightens the spiral, which then accelerates the dive. The situational awareness of the pilot during this spiral is key (usually happens during low visibility w/no horizon), they always die unless the right action is taken. Anyways the stress to AD cycle dynamic analogy seems clear enough. We are however trained to "screw the stress get it done", Which is like pulling back on the stick.
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