Replies to post #164192 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[circuitcity]

Really nice analysis and thanks for follow up.

[lowlevelowl88]

Great insight Chas -- I wonder if the slow enrollment also contributed to the swings in LDL early on in the placebo arm (ie rise -> fall -> stabilization), which naysayers were so quick to point at.

I now have a theory about what happened. The curves for the primary endpoint didn’t really start separating until after about a year, and the active arm didn’t really bend down until almost two years. Unlike JELIS, RI enrollment was spread out over a period of years, so a lot of the subjects had a relatively short time in the trial. If the first 18 months or so are just priming the pump, and the real benefits don’t start until 18 or 20 months in, then the actual RRR that would be attained in the long run would be substantially higher than what was reported for RI.