Replies to post #160976 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rafunrafun]

That's if 100% of statin users get a script of V? It won't be anywhere near 100%.

Everyone knows that broccoli is good for you. Does 100% of US population eat broccoli?

[Nukemtiltheyglow]

Raisttheimage; Amarin Valuation, Be careful with assumptions;

"Almost everyone on Statins will be on Vascepa?" Not quite, there's no study to prove-it yet, but some posters have posted (Trial of 1) that the combination of a Statin & Vascepa have caused a "Plaque Regression?" So, the jury is still out unless someone has done a study to prove this anomaly either way?

Your numbers are in the ballpark; 30 Million (Just USA)? Not counting Europe, Middle East or Asia (Generic Epadel).

Amarin's Margin% is roughly 70%-75% (why 60%?)

Annual script based on "my own experience" $2500 (4 x $630 = $2520)

Agree that $45 PPS is too low, using your numbers (30 million scripts), assuming no dilution or debt financing

($2520*30M*.70) = 52.9B/(373M shares) = 141.88/ share - G&A ($20 / share)

So, $120 per share approx. All depends on time to get to 30M scripts per year

Amarin is very close to break even (Cash Flow positive @ approx. 32k scripts per week).

Be nice if HD Gabor could weigh in here..... :D)

[Whalatane]

Rais. re where you are wrong

" By next summer

Almost everyone on Statin's will be on this drug."

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Dream on . Statins are generic . Its unlikely insurance co's will be willing to offer low co pays for ALL 30m statin patients..

Prescribing habits also , in my experience as a CAD patient , don't change that fast .

JMO
'Kiwi