Replies to post #198527 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[skitahoe]

I certainly agree that this is much more important than curing mice, but I also cannot say that it's not a cure for a small percentage of those who've tried it, it may take a decade or more to determine they're cured. It's certainly a platform and one which should be built on.

I cannot say if a better vaccine will be the answer to curing a greater percentage, or perhaps our vaccine in combination with other therapies yet to be invented will be an answer. Time will tell.

My point is more about market caps, and my belief that without more proof than we have today a multi-billion dollar market cap isn't yet justified, and if it should hit those height on emotion, investors should consider taking a defensive posture.

For those who invested in DNDN years ago, emotion carried it to unimaginable heights, but when the dust settled it failed completely, even after its drug was approved. Many profited when they recognized the price wasn't warranted by the news, but some who purchased on the hype lost their shirts. As I see it, we're practically the reverse of DNDN today, they had people so enthusiastic that they were appealing to Congress to overturn the delays caused by the FDA. While we may have some enthusiastic investors, it's nothing like the throngs who were invested there, and I know DNDN investors who don't believe in us at all.

I believe that unblinding the trial will bring out far greater enthusiasm, but nothing like DNDN. Unlike DNDN, we have a product that should be in much greater demand once it's approved, and I suspect the demand for its use off label will be tremendous as anecdotal evidence of efficacy in other cancer grows. Eventually label expansion will cover many cancers and I really believe that reasonably small registrational Phase 2 Trials will prove to be justification for that label expansion.

DNDN failed because demand for Provenge just wasn't that high because of high cost and limited benefit over other drugs. We should succeed because of solid benefits and costs in line with other therapies that are less effective. I'm of the belief that as additional disease are added to the mix that the drugs can be used for, price can be reduced with volume making treatment even more desirable. Of course with insurance paying the lions share of treatment cost it will become the treatment of choice by many patients.

Gary