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Replies to post #1645 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
11/24/18 10:52 AM
THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Nov. 23, 2018: NY Silver COMEX Futures closing today of 142430 immediately is trading down about 16% for the year from last year's closing of 171450. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 141650 following the high established Wed. Nov. 21, 2018. We have advanced 0.nf% from the previous day implying the market is still very strong. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are coming into play with silver due ideally the week of 0/0 followed by the gold target due the week of the week of . Up to now, we have been rallying in this market since the last low was made the week of November 12th at 138600 for the past 1 weeks.
Taking a broader cyclical perspective, the view which provides a map to the future is particularly important. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2019. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 171450 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2019 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2020 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2019. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 309760. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 141540.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 4.57% which has been a moderate rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 136200.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 249128 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 148760 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 141300. This provides a 5.01% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 173600 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 141000. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 18%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 142430, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 4.25% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come December in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during September. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 139650. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a high at 149500 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 142400 closing yesterday at 142430. We now need to close beneath 143150 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 142050.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 12th at 138600, which was down 6 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 1st. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of November 12th, which has been a move of.0472%. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Eyeing the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 6 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the weekly level was 149500, which was created during the week of October 1st. The previous weekly level low was 138600, which formed during the week of November 12th, and only a break of 138600 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 139650 on a closing basis.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 182900 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during September 2017. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 186550 back during April 2017. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Critical resistance still stands in this market at 173600 and a break above that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a continued advance becomes possible.
Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 12 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the monthly level was 182900, which was created during September 2017. The previous monthly level low was 139650, which formed during September, and has now been broken in the recent decline. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
