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Replies to post #71710 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
11/17/18 10:18 AM
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Nov. 16, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 273627 and is trading up about 2.34% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Nov. 15, 2018, but the key low was made 14 days ago on Mon. Oct. 29, 2018 at 260354. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
On a broader cyclical perspective, the view of the future is clearly interesting. Our target last year, in fact, proved to be an upward trading year yet closed above the previous high. This year was the next target due for 2018. We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2019. At this time, the market is trading above last year's close of 267361 which is bullish. Furthermore, the market is trading below our Dynamic Pivot Point for this year 1793518, which is negative. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 142618 which is 47% just below the current price levels warning that a year-end closing beneath that level would signal the start of an official bear market trend.
During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 67 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 1974 from which we have witnessed a 44 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 327445 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 280454 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 271050. This provides a 3.35% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 279148 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 268235. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 3.90%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 273627, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 2.43% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during October. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 260354 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 293986 to 260354. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 17th at 294091, which was up 32 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high on the Pi cycle. We have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a sharp move of .0512% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of November 5th reaching 281515 failed to exceed the previous high of 294091 made back during the week of September 17th. That rally amounted to onlyone week. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 14 weeks overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-3592 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 3593 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 281515, which was created during the week of November 5th. The previous weekly level low was 260354, which formed during the week of October 29th, and only a break of 271794 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 271051 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 268235 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 32 months. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 294091, which was created during September. However, we still remain below key resistance 274224 on a closing basis.
