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Replies to post #71719 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
11/24/18 10:47 AM
THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Nov. 23, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closing today of 263256 immediately is trading down about 1.53% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 12 days, while we have made a low at 263109 following the high established Wed. Nov. 7, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 264755 would imply a retest of the previous high. We have advanced 0.nf% from the previous day implying the market is still very strong. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. Our target last year, in fact, proved to be an upward trading year yet closed above the previous high. This year was the next target due for 2018. We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2019. At this time, the market is trading below last year's close of 267361 which is bearish. Furthermore, the market is trading below our Dynamic Pivot Point for this year 1793517, which is negative. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 142618 which is 45% just below the current price levels warning that a year-end closing beneath that level would signal the start of an official bear market trend.
During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 67 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 1974 from which we have witnessed a 44 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 327445 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 277895 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 261078. This provides a 6.05% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 279148 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 268235. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 3.90%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 263256, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 5.26% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during October. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 260354 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 293986 to 260354. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 275460. To date, this decline has been down fortwelve daily sessions.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 29th at 260354, which was down 6 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 17th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of November 19th, which has been a move of .0373 percent.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 281515, which was created during the week of November 5th. The previous weekly level low was 260354, which formed during the week of October 29th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 271051 above the market.
Looking at a broader time horizon, this market is in an uptrend position on all our monthly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 32 months. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 294091, which was created during September. However, we still remain below key resistance 274224 on a closing basis.
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