Replies to post #155842 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Pyrrhonian]

$35? Based on “conservative” estimates of sales? Lol, cmon. Stop talking so much book.

The float will be 400 mil before long. Already 375 mil fully diluted. So you think a roughy $14B market cap is conservative now? Totally disagree.

Based on a very limited pipeline, 2:1 price to sales, your figure assumes $7B annual sales as an average, for a span of at least 10 years. Lipitor’s peak year (not average) annual worldwide sales at about 80% market saturation, similar pricing to Vascepa (considering margins), and much much wider demographic was $12.8B. So no, I think you’re far off. Actually at $20 it’s overpriced even in optimistic scenarios (like generics being staved off for full patent term, which isn’t likely).

No I think the only way you get to those numbers is if AMRN can manage to sock away a few billion before their market share disappears and then acquire a small cap with promising candidates. Spend $500mm - $1B on the acquisition and $2B-$3B finishing trials and marketing. But all that’s no guarantee either, and they’ll have to compete with BP for the best picks.

Jmo

[lowlevelowl88]

Nope, I do not personally think anything of the sort, but if there was no doubt out there AMRN would already be $30, $35, or more based on conservative estimates of sales.

I'm not being critical, relax. Having a ton of remaining doubt out there is a GOOD thing, because it means that AMRN is not "priced to perfection" right now.

This is my thinking as well. We know investors at large are still awaiting confirmation of whether the data is (are?) fine, good, great, dayum!, or as TTE says, OMG. And we know this based on sales to potential patient pop relative to current Mcap.

If data is (are?) **only** in-line with currently positive expectations, call it "good" above, there may be a near-term sell-the-news sentiment, which may also be counterbalanced by confirmation of the "good" news and lack of surprises, green-lighting the Tutes.

Even if data is (are?) fine, this is still an M&A target longer term, so shares should be safe, just at reduced pps, say from yacht to 36' sloop.

I personally think they have surprises in store, which is why I converted 1/3 of my initial gains to options, and for the "takeover insurance" as well.