Replies to post #152152 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KevGee59]

drrc...

IMO...it depends on if Bio is right or not about tomorrow. Personally, I would've bought the Nov 16th...just to be sure.

[smarterer]

So what do we think folks? Not having great success keeping us down today and it feels like it wants to push up farther. I bought 25 Nov 2nd $22 Calls earlier for 45 cents. Did I make the right call?

Very high risk/high reward, in my view. That is to say, if it pans out, you'll do well, but to really score you need the share price to rise above $23; really above $24. But I could easily see that prospect going bust, with limited catalysts happening in the time between now and 11/10. If BB is right, and something happens at the Boston confab tomorrow, you'll likely be fine, but I am a skeptic anything clear-cut emerges. Beyond that, there's always potential for a suitor to announce himself re: a buyout, but that's a longer shot (before 11/10) than BB's dream. Lastly, and your best hope, is that there is increasing pressure on funds trying to buy ahead of 11/10, as that date grows closer. I think that you are less than 50/50 of having this work; it's not a bet I would do.

I have a few options for 11/9--21s and 22s--that I will unload if we get a nice spike, to roll forward. The large majority of my calls are for 11/16 and 11/23, and then I have more in Dec and Jan. If you get a spike you might consider cashing out enough to cover your costs, and rolling those earnings into something after 11/10. Otherwise I'd be worried about losing your principal which would hurt your total take markedly.

Good luck!

[smarterer]

drrc,

Just realized I overlooked one more event that may work to your advantage: earnings reported 11/1. That may give the price at least a little bump on Halloween, as folks worry about some news bleeding in from the last week of September after the REDUCE-IT topline report. HDG first brought this to my attention in a posting earlier today.

Still think there's a lot of risk, but want to be sure to include the positives, too.

[chas1232123]

drrc - To each their own, but as I see it, what we are sure about is that AMRN ends up much higher eventually, and the data details that will help the market price it more correctly (higher) will be released Nov 10. The exact timing and extent of the stock price increase, and the price trajectory before Nov 10, are much less certain. I, like some other posters here, have calls expiring Nov 16 or later (and a pile of stock). Later expirations are pricier, for good reason, than your Nov 2 calls. You've more than doubled your money. If it were me, I'd sell those and buy Nov 16 or later. There may well be a good runup in the next week, maybe more likely than not, but I'd play it safer with something like Nov 16 $25, even though they might gain less. With an unlucky market twist or turn, your Nov 2s could expire worthless.

I'm looking for a very probable nice bump up on Nov 12, and that's what I'd focus on first, then solid gains likely over the next several months. Just my opinion. I'm not an options expert, but Dan is, and he also mentioned he liked out of the money November 16s. Good luck.