“While volumes have been generally climbing, we note that today’s [Thursday] volume wasn’t particularly high – it was actually about 1% below the monthly average. Selling was up, but volume was down. There was a lot less selling pressure than we saw a week ago based on volume.
My Money Trend indicator turned up today, also indicating less selling pressure. This indicator attempts to follow the general concept of Lowry Research and their supply and demand methodology for stock market analysis. Their concept is based on a detailed stock-by-stock analysis while mine is an estimate based on readily available Macro data. Theirs is much more accurate, but that doesn’t mean mine isn’t useful.
The S&P 500 has still not closed significantly below its 200-dMA. The 200-dMA is 2768 as of Thursday.
RSI and the Overbought/Oversold ratio are indicating oversold. There have only been 5-days up in the last month for the S&P 500. That’s a strong oversold sign too. (I looked all the way back to 2009 and couldn’t find a number this low.) New-High/new-low data doesn’t get much worse than we have now. Seems like it has nowhere to go but up.”
These are very bullish signs suggesting at least a short-term bounce.
PS: As I recall, you nailed the bottom back in February.
Preliminary buy signal. Based on data as of 1100 today, I have a BUY signal. I don’t recommend acting on it since guessing how the rest of the day will go is too much conjecture. My methodology is based on closing data so we’ll have to wait and see.
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