Replies to post #9490 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[eb0783]

I've read all of Brandon's posts and thoughts on what he heard. I just want to validate for those of who might think any of it is made up that I don't disagree with a thing. I was in the room when he was asking the Qs during the meeting and I didn't ask any then since he was doing a good job at it. I heard the answers just like he did. We also stood side by side for the post-meeting Q&A discussions with Lindheim, King, and Thorpe. This was the first time I had met Brandon but I certainly can validate what he has posted.

Paul

[Big On Tarvy]

Great Post Brandon.

I concur with everything you say, especially the hierarchy of importance you describe. Thanks, B.C., for all your time and effort in reporting the s/h meeting so well.

The only thing you left out is Cotara. I think management is very excited by Slide 8 in P.L.’s presentation. PPHM knows they have found the dosing sweet spot (2.0-2.5 mCi) and they realize they may only be 20 patients away (perhaps 4-6 months away at Indian clinical speed) from having enough data to do a fairly-priced BP license of TNT for the GBM market. That license will give us the cash and credibility needed to light a bonfire under all the AC and AV Bavi programs.

_______________________

Separately, I believe a new card is at play that wasn’t in the game before. For the first time management is pursuing PR aggressively because the next funding for the Ph II trials will be in the $30-$40 million range and the dilution stakes will be high. Contrary to some on this board, I believe management views unnecessary dilution as a serious problem. They know the clock is ticking fast since the next financing will have to be priced somewhere between March and June. If they can’t close a Cotara license by March or April, they will distribute as much top-line data as they can on the HCV repeat dose trial and the Indian cancer combo trial as soon as enrollment completes in those trials. That means “late 2006 or early 2007,” i.e. Dec or Jan.

For the last two years management did everything they could NOT TO BEAT the PR drums before they had to. Over the next six months, the opposite will be true -- they will do everything they can to TO BEAT the PR drums at the earliest possible moment. They want that WSJ article to appear in Feb or March just as much as we do.