Since I posted about the SHM, a few posters have asked my opinion as to Peregrine’s prospects. I’ve been reluctant to respond, because I’m not sure I have any insight superior to KT or Jazz or any of the other regulars on this board. Furthermore, unlike BOT, I know no insiders. But as long as people realize that, what the heck, here goes:
Bottom line: my primary focus as an investor is on the 12 cancer patients who will be treated with Bavi in India. SK has not gotten nearly the love he deserves for announcing this trial. IT’S STUPENDOUS. BRILLIANT. AWESOME. I truly believe it will make or break this stock.
How did I get to that conclusion? Well, look at everything else. Unless SK was lying to my face, bioterrorism is not happening. Given that we’ve heard nothing for so long, he was probably telling the truth. Bird flu remains a possibility, but there is no evidence they have, or are coming close, to solving the delivery issue. Obviously, since we are well into this year’s flu season and PPHM hasn't gotten a penny, it sure doesn’t look like anything is going to happen for anytime soon (unless there is an H5N1 epidemic and we’re all going to die anyway.)
HIV is also a ways off and, as I posted before, there are serious pricing issues. Even if it works, we’ll have to destroy our business model to be competitive. Where’s the fun in that?
HCV remains an intriguing possibility. As I posted before, if it works as a mono-therapy, it will blow all the competitors out of the water, because of its lack of side effects. Even if it works great with Ribavirin it will dominate because patients won’t have to endure the horror of interferon. However, at this point there is no compelling evidence to suggest Bavi will work as a monotherapy on HCV. Phase 2 combos with Ribavirin and Ribavirin/Interferon are a year away from being completed. By that time, VRTX will be in Phase 3. The HCV market is incredibly crowded with competitors, many of which have very compelling data.
Which brings us to cancer. The 1(a) cancer trial has been excruciatingly slow. We haven’t heard a word about how it’s going, but you have to believe Bavi is showing some efficacy. Now, all of a sudden, we’ve got a 1(b) going that plays exactly to Bavi’s sweet spot: 8 full weeks of treatment of Bavi combined with chemo on dying patients. This is what we’ve been waiting for!!! We should know the results of this study almost a full year ahead of the HCV Bavi/Ribavirin combo study. True, I wish the patients were naïve and not relapsers, but if the results are successful that just makes them even more spectacular.
As I posted earlier, it was emphasized to me at the SHM the buzz in the scientific community that was created by the release of the mice pancreatic cancer data. It didn’t translate into an appreciation in share price but I was told it definitely got the attention of BP. Everyone who matters to Peregrine is watching the India 1(b) very carefully. I didn’t ask if any of the Indian patients will have pancreatic cancer, but I sure hope so. If PPHM can show any meaningful results with that death sentence in particular, or with the other dying cancer patients, we are off and running. Big time.
I also posted earlier about my conversations with Barbara Lindheim. Naturally, I asked her when we would see PPHM in the WSJ or on CNBC. We were talking about HCV and she didn’t appear to be all that enthusiastic that it would happen any time soon. She told us about an unwritten rule with the WSJ: absent a real blockbuster, unless you’re in Phase 2 or higher, they’re not interested. However, when she was asked about cancer and the India Bavi trial, she got very enthusiastic. She thought the trial was “fantastic” and said words to the effect that this was something she could really work with. She never specifically said it, but I interpreted her to mean, if PPHM gets great results from India, that will be the type of blockbuster that will get us mentioned prominently in the WSJ. From that point on PPHM will be able to write its own ticket and raising money will be a breeze.
All the pre-clinical data with cancer that I’ve seen has been encouraging. Bavi plus chemo is where it has shined the brightest. We should know within the next 5 or 6 months how it did. Cancer is a $50+ billion a year industry. Hit a homer here by curing some dying cancer patients and we are immediately a double digit stock. More likely, get a hit here – show some meaningful efficacy on these patients by stopping/shrinking their tumors – and we’ll still be a $3-5 stock. If we don’t show any real efficacy I won’t be able to sell my stock fast enough.
Brandon
