Replies to post #24598 on Marker Therapeutics Inc (MRKR)

[Phantom Lord]

I agree that there is a lot of great detail in the proxy. The problem is they don't settle on on a single valuation. They just list the different valuations they came up with using certain methods and these valuations are all over the board. I strongly encourage everyone to read the proxy, Nomura's valuations start on page 63, but for those that haven't looked, or don't plan on looking, a brief summary is below.

Financial Analysis: They used the 52-week high & low of Tapimmune and looked at recent comparable IPOs for Marker.

Tapimmune: $28M - $48M
Marker: $300M - $395M

Combined: $328M - $443M

Comparable Companies Analysis: Pretty straightforward. They compared each company to other companies developing similar therapies in the same stage of trials.

Tapimmune: $66M - $164M
Marker: $741M - $816M

Combined: $807M - $980M

Discounted Cash Flow Analyses: Used to calculate the present value of future cash flows. Obviously the future cash flows are estimated. Nomura does detail their approach in the proxy. On a side note I love DCF analysis on established and profitable companies where estimating future cash flows is easier but stay away from using it on pre-revenue biotechs as calculating future cash flows is damn near impossible, IMO. FWIW.

Tapimmune: $115M - $175M
Marker: $385M - 656M

Combined: $500M - $831M

Comparable Transaction Analysis: They looked at other acquisition targets and their purchase prices. This is just to put a value on Marker.

Marker: $350M - $1.365B


This is not all the information in Nomura's analysis but only the analysis that provided valuations. These analyses are independent of each other as they each take into account different variables. Between everything valuations range from $328M - $1.365B. This is all based on the two companies as they are now and does not include the $70M cash infusion at close of the merger which obviously adds $70M immediately to the valuation. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. I am expecting a couple of surprises before the end of the year.

Good Luck Everyone.

And, on your side note, I had never seen that trial before but it looked like it could potential be Tapimmune's so I had to confirm with the company. FWIW, I believe all the trials I posted a couple of days ago are all the trials currently running that we have rights to.

[Eagle1]

Good Morning! Anyone know the reason the new name will be Marker instead of TapImmune?


Thanks