My take on the upcoming catalysts and recent news/actions:
Upfront caveot: I have a long core position but I trade the stock with other funds at times: Recent news:
Ignite Visibility: 2016 revs were $3.16 so they are small, and the revenue sharing will be small for now and the next year or two, although they are growing nicely. Good exposure - longer term positive.
Dr2 Marketing Owler (not very reliable sometimes) shows 35 employees and revs of $5.3m, so same assessment as for Ignite.
Streamline Results 2 online sources are showing between $1-3m in revs, so same assessment as for the above 2.
MARKETO Joint PR Marketo - revs look to be about $300m so now we are talking about something bigger. Also they have already mentioned NFUSZ - they asked Rory if they could - which indicates they are excited to be offering our product to their users. Marketo's products help primarily small businesses to sell more through various means - email campaigns, social media to name a couple. They are a good match. We are integrating with their Marketing Engagement Platform which sounds pretty cool: https://www.marketo.com/software/platform/
The adoption rate will be important. They have hundreds of other partner applications: <<LaunchPoint partners offer hundreds of marketing applications that work seamlessly with our platform.>> so their sales team will need to make a concerted effort to get people excited about NotifiCRM. This is a large unknown at this point but the fact that Marketo themselves mentioned us in a PR already - with several others - is an encouraging sign that sales may go well.
Re sales: Marketo has a nice $5,000 minimum going to clients (80% to FUSZ - so $4,000), per enterprise. I would need more details to have much opinion. It sounds good but I do have concerns about the rate of adoption by larger companies. FUSZ has announced deals with a dozen or so larger companies - some announced almost a year ago, that so far have not produced revenues, for reasons unknown. With Marketo though the story should be different - as we won't need to integrate but just ONE TIME (I think) - and then their clients have it avail to them. Larger companies take more time to make decisions that cost that much, so I expect most adoption to begin with smaller companies - not clear to me if they pay $5,000 or a different rate.
Rory has said several times that conversion rates are 'up to 600%'. That is a maximum, not an average. What is the average? We are not privy to that info yet, but an influencer did say that 'click-through' rates are up 40%. That is a very positive number. How many of those convert or are just enticed to click since it is so easy to do so - is an open question. Rate of adoption just cannot be estimated with any certainty at this point for these reasons. It sounds promising but since adoption has not happened apparently with ScoutView, Dealyah, Accessory Greeks, the small cable company, and prob a few others I can't remember anymore - it gives me pause until we see how it plays out. I am cautiously optimistic. I'm looking forward to what the joint PR says about it to learn more.
Oracle It's a huge company. Rory says the partnership is a big opportunity. That the executives were very excited when he explained the product. It IS a big opportunity. It could put us on the map. THe potential is enormous. Longs seem to be convinced that this is it. This is going to result in $100m in revenue in a short amount of time. I - no surprise - am more cautious. Oracle has plenty of other partners too. We don't know how hard salesmen will be pushing our product. I tend to think that if it was a no-brainer it wouldn't be sold as an add-on - it would be offered to all of their clients to give them a leg up on the competition and capture all-important market share from those that they beat to the punch. Since they didn't do that I think there is somewhat of a "let's see how well it sells" attitude. We haven't heard from Oracle yet - are they really excited? I am looking forward to the joint PR to see if they GUSH over the product or not. If not, this could take more time than people think to even get to $10m in revs. As with Marketo I expect early adoption to be with the smaller companies and individuals. Larger ones take longer - BUT once a larger one adopts then if they suddenly start taking market share from their competitors there could be a domino effect. So long term could be great but for me it is first things first.
MICRO CAP Conference April 9th Good for exposure but at this point not sure it will bring in many more buyers.
Rich Bohn Review..I know very late but eventually I like anything that gives insight into end users because that is all that really matters. Looking forward to it. We already know he is positive so by and large may already be figured into the stock price. May be good for a short term bump though.
Rory trading his Salary for Stock! This is great. First time I recall seeing him do this, but maybe he's filed these each year. First time one has been posted to the board. I'm semi--ok with the salary he gets, but totally ok that it goes to stock. They - and he - are working hard. And for me it is big that he did it at market prices. It's definitely a vote of confidence. The issue is whether Rory knows the stock is grossly undervalued or just thinks it is. He has said this is uncharted territory - they just don't know the rate of adoption yet, other than MLMs, and he said that for them it was a long learning curve. CEO's often are not good market timers. He believes and so he buys stock. It's a great sign of confidence. How good an investor he is is less certain. BUT, he knows plenty that we don't. OTOH, he has missed projections of revenue by more than a year. And badly. The same could be true with regard to his stock timing. His optimism is both a blessing and a curse. Blessing because it drives him and buying shares shows his credibility and sincerity. Curse because it is leaves things uncertain as to if his timing is right this time or wrong like before.
April 23rd ORACLE NETSUITE Conference Looking forward to seeing how significant NFUSZ presence is at it.
More Unprecedented PR's..5 to 10 in the next two months..IMO but confident
We've been waiting for quite a few big ones that haven't happened. We've gotten 3 surprises with smaller companies. Anything can happen at any time.
Extremely Low Float! Great if the company succeeds in the long term. Short term it makes it subject to fast and far moves in both directions.
60% Insider/PP Lock down Great sign of confidence. Addressed above.
Hawaii Trip - Entourage launch to MLMs MLM - I have to believe Rory would not have said 'blow past' if the numbers weren't close. But I don't interpret 'blow past' to mean 'far exceed'. One might say 'Usian Bolt blew past the 2nd place finisher' but the reality is he may have only beat the guy by 5%.
20,000 is a great start. If it includes FES and is made up of a lot of the downline signups of influencers, then it becomes less clear how the numbers unfold going forward. IF they need another FES or 11 new influencers to get to 20,000 more that could take another 4-5 months. But chances are it goes faster as time goes on, and I believe organic growth will occur if others who aren't as good at sales get the 40% click-through increase that the influencer got. MLMs are dreamers too so I am optimistic that they will at least try it out. SO I'm thinking maybe up to 80,000 or so by year end. Anywhere from 50-200k is possible. Without weekly or at least monthly numbers to compare it is impossible to know how close we get to those by year end. Rory hinted - I think - that entire MLM companies may have or may be thinking more seriously about adopting the technology. Whether it will be elective or required-built-in is not known. That potentially could quickly scale. Still very early.
NotifiID Could catch on. Would be great exposure. Many will have no interest in it - it appears to just be an icon with some javascript (for the circle thing) to a link to their demo and many don't want to video themselves - they are uncomfortable with their appearance or what to say. But it sounds like a net positive to building the brand name. Not sure what other monetary advantages there are but that alone could be significant.
So, cautious on everything, but pretty optimistic overall. The company has a market cap of about $180 million. That's a high premium. Long term it may prove to be a bargain. I think the price has about $8m in revs over the next 1-2 years built into it already. That's doable - and may well get blown away. It won't be until late summer before people get more serious about that kind of growth evaluation though. Until then it will continue to focus on the story, new announcements, and the potential of each of those.
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