Replies to post #20633 on Traders Cooperative

[Joe Stocks]

>>nothing in the greater economy or demographics has changed<<

I did not read this as nothing has changed. The industry has been saying that demographics are very positive and trends should continue. That's what the industry says will not change.

My argument is the demographics trends now and five years ago are close to the same. However, in the mean time we saw a bubble develop. Demographics did not cause homeownership to move from 66% to 70% of all households. Lower interest rates and exotic mortgages greated the mania IMO.

BTW, There are about 105 mil households in the US. For the homebuilders to see continued growth they will need to see the percentage of homeownership to increase on an equal projectory. That is not going to happen with home prices going lower and higher interest rates with the current inventory over-hang.