Replies to post #164227 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Kentucky123]

I will give it a shot or at least swag at it. Computers control and trade most everything today. This is a little known company with no visibility outside existing retail holders and a small cadre of tutes. The trend is programed into the computer and the algorithm is set. Nothing matters until the trend is reversed and it is down short term for the last 8 weeks and long term for the last 3 plus years. The question is when do the bargain days for investors end? We are oversold on the daily, weekly, two hourly time frames so we should bounce very shortly and reverse short term. That does not mean the long term trend is reversed. That will require a move above 3.95 now. The big boys need to become interested and they will be back from the beach next week. Watch volume as it will be key in the change of the long term trend. I think we are at a bottom now.

[F1ash]

Any thoughts, clues, explanations on why AVXL sp continues to waffle-edge downward or what ever the technical term is for what we have seen since last trial start PR? I am open to rational conspiracy theories as explanation.

Do you think it’s helpful that Anavex has no debt and cash in the bank? Wouldn’t it be a good idea to keep it that way? Generally speaking wouldn’t you expect expenses to raise significantly with 3 1/2 clinical trials running compared to just 1? If you were running the company and wanted to use the Cantor agreement to add to the cash account, when would you do that? Would you time the tapping to coincide with a positive PR release? I would. Increased volume is needed imho.

[Penny Double]

Dilution!!!!!

[Steady_T]

The basics haven't changed that much.

There is still just one trial with a very small number of subjects that has mixed results. Some very good, others looking like little effect. The company hasn't released enough data to really tease out what has happened.

Yes, there are now two trials approved to start and the first subject has been recruited.

What that means is the process to acquire the hard data to demonstrate a working drug to a skeptical bio investor crowd is now underway.

Because of the very high failure rate of AD drugs, most bio investors see the glass as half empty and leaking. It will take clear statistical evidence under a fully controlled trail to convince them to take the risk and invest.

Those of us who are closer to the Anavex 2-73 story see the glass as half full and slowly filling. There is a tendency to over interpret any available information in the most positive light because we want avxl to succeed and there are some very positive pieces of information available.

We current avxl investors are a minority of bio investors and apparently have a higher risk tolerance or deniance level than the majority of bio investors.

That and there is a large short position out there.

[lqmike]

If I may throw this out, I personally am a long since 2013!, and intend on staying that way. That being said, as of late I have sold some, but only to buy into a few other bio' that are either about to skyrocket or go bk. For the 3 others, it's over one way or the other in the next 2 months, I sold only 10 percent of my position in Avxl to do this.
I doubt that I am the only one here doing this. I just feel that Avxl will go sideways a little for the next 3 months, so perhaps I have time on my side. And if I am wrong and Biib buys us tomorrow, well I still have 95 percent from my Avxl holding.

So just my thoughts on why we are trailing down as of late.
GLTA
Mike