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Replies to post #39049 on GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)
08/25/18 9:08 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 24, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 120860 immediately is trading down about 7.69% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. So far, we have been trading up for the past 6 days since the low made on Thu. Aug. 16, 2018. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Our Benchmarks in the precious metals are reaching a convergence and are fixed for the weeks of 9/3 in silver followed by the gold target due the week of 9/10. Up to now, we were declining in this market since the last high was made the week of June 11th at 131300 for 9 weeks. We have been consolidating since the week of August 13th.
From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2018 so caution is obviously suggested during this year since we have made a new low. Immediately, we are trading below last year's closing of 130930 yet above our Dynamic Pivot Point during this year residing at 0. This does suggest a bounce to the upside is possible into the next target as long as this year's low holds. Thereafter, we could see a trend reversal into the following target due in 2019. Keep in mind that last year was an inside trading year. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 143260. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 113030. Technically, we are trading beneath all three key projected support levels for this year leaving the market in a weak position.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 15% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 123540 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 117960. This provides a 4.51% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 121420. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 10%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 120860, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 2.16% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come November in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during April. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 121070 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 121070 closing yesterday at 120860. We now need to close below 121070 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly..
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 13th at 116270, which was down 18 weeks from the high made back during the week of April 9th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of August 13th, which has been a move of.0392%. Distinctly, we have not elected any Weekly buy signal to date.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 9 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the weekly level was 131300, which was created during the week of June 11th. The previous weekly level low was 116270, which formed during the week of August 13th, and only a break of 116270 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 128120 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Bearing in mind the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-519 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 522 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The previous monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
