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Replies to post #71589 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)
08/18/18 9:15 AM
THE ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 17, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 285013 and is trading up about 6.60% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. So far, we have been trading up for the past 2 days since the reaction low made on Wed. Aug. 15, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains positive. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2019. Up to now, the market been consolidating trading within last year's range. The direction into the next target due 2021 will be indictaed whether we close above or below last year's closing of 267361.
The historical major high took place here in 2017 and we have since penetrated the low of last year intraday.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 327445 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Employing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 295614 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 277072. This provides a 6.27% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 285013, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 3.58% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during February. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 284803 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 284803 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 283526.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 6th at 286343, which was up 26 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 283328. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 282581 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 286343, which was created during the week of August 6th.
Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 29 months. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 269199 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.
