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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 11, 2018

Analysis for the Week of August 13, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 10, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 283328 and is trading up about 5.97% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 282581 following the high established Tue. Aug. 7, 2018, this price action warns that we have a pause in trend. However, we have now elected a Bullish Reversal from this immediate price action and closed on the soft-side at the end of the session failing to bounce sharply from the lows. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low. Nonetheless, the market remains somewhat positive. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

On a broader cyclical perspective, the view of the future is cleary interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2019. Up to now, the market been consolidating trading within last year's range. The direction into the next target due 2021 will be indictaed whether we close above or below last year's closing of 267361.

The historical major high took place here in 2017 and we have since penetrated the low of last year intraday.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 327445 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 298736 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 273950. This provides a 8.29% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 329920 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 244654. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 283328, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 5.15% beneath that level.

Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. The last cyclical event was a low established back during February. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 284803 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 284803 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 289200 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is bullish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 283598.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 6th at 286343, which was up 26 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 286343 to 282581. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of August 6th reaching 286343 has exceeded the previous high of 279147 made back during the week of June 11th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 18 weeks overall.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 26 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 279634 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 286343, which was created during the week of August 6th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

Critical support still underlies this market at 244654 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 29 months. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 269199 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 287287, which was created during January.

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