Replies to post #185680 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

mOS is at 23.1 month. That is event 166 (ITT 331/2)

No.

23.1 is the KM 50% cross. There were certainly less than 166 events at 23.1 in the publication dataset.

If they wait for everybody to cross 23.1, and find the LTFUs, then 166 would be the predicted number.

Senti is closing in the best numbers, but I doubt there is sufficient resolution to ever get THE answer,

With enough effort (and tech, and eyes), the events can be accurately counted. But not censors. The most difficult issue is nobody can ever be certain than a censor tick is really only a single tick and not 2 directly on top of each other. And there is no way to ever no for certain if a tick is not an LTFU. We can be certain of the forst 9, after that we can not know.

BTW, this is really just a play exercise. At the end of the day, you can either believe the curve, or question if the LTFUs biased it. The rest is a pointless excersize to keep erverybody busy in the absence of real news :-)

[sentiment_stocks]

Are you counting the LTFUs in the step downs?

166-11= 155 step downs (115 patients died between 0 and 23.1 month)

How are you arriving at 155 step downs between 0 and 23.1 months? 23.1 months is sort of hard to precisely set because it's not charted out like that. Regardless, you have 155 going to 23.1 and I have 156 going to the 24th month.

So I'm not sure why you are adding on an extra 10 between 23 and 24 months?