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08/11/18 10:24 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 10, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6763 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 9 days, while we have made a low at 6614 following the high established Mon. Jul. 30, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 6787 would imply a retest of the previous high. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2020. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 6042 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2020 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2021 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2020. Our pivot point for the year is 50312 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 9270. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 5243.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 159% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 7088 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6741. This provides a 4.89% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 9060 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5994. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 33%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 6763, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 4.58% beneath that level.
Focusing on our timing models, it is possible to see a turning point come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures. Remember to stay on point given this possible development ahead. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 7527 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 6629 closing yesterday at 6763. We now need to close beneath 6629 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.
Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 6820.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 2nd at 7527, which was up 54 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 7527, which was created during the week of July 2nd. The previous weekly level low was 6340, which formed during the week of June 18th, and only a break of 6692 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 6429 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5994 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 29 months. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6340 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 7527, which was created during July. However, we still remain below key resistance 6955 on a closing basis.
