NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | August 4, 2018
Analysis for the Week of August 06, 2018
THE ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 3, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6849 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Aug. 2, 2018. 0 (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 0 and since we have made a new high. This warns that a year-end closing below 6042 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2019 becomes possible.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 162% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 which we have already exceeded and are currently trading above this level warning some strength has resurfaced in this market. This level can now offer technical support during any attempt to fall back in this market. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 6939 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6741. This provides a 2.85% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 9060 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5994. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 33%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 6849, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 1.29% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during July. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 7527 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 7527 to 6629. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is bearish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 2nd at 7527, which was up 54 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We can see this market has been down for the past week. The last high on the weekly level was 7527, which was created during the week of July 2nd. The previous weekly level low was 6340, which formed during the week of June 18th, and only a break of 6756 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain above key support 6429 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5994 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 29 months. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6340 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 7527, which was created during July. However, we still remain below key resistance 6955 on a closing basis.
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