Replies to post #161468 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[tradeherpete]

MCI, when based on cognitive screens like MMSE, converts to AD at about 20% per year so many just stay at MCI x 3-5 years. Amnestic MCI (patients lost points for the short term recall and are normal elsewhere) has higher conversion to AD than non-amnestic MCI but most are still MCI at 48 weeks. Since amyloid PET and/or CSF is a criteria for entry (based on HH's AAIC talk), then all MCI patients enrolled are theoretically at some risk of progressing to AD so rate would probably be > 20%, though I doubt > 50% in 48 weeks.

Thanks for that. I sort of get it. Wouldn’t it be great to see the 27-28 few go off the charts?

It wouldn’t surprise me if they are looking for the milder types to show gains in all categories rather quickly which, some noted, has occurred. And somewhere I recall reading about some normal rats that got even smarter after taking…maybe it was 3-71. In any case if it does get approved we shouldn’t be giving any to the rats.

I do see what you’re getting at and have no doubt you will keep an eye on that for us. haha

[hnbadger1]

Doc, you mentioned A3-71. I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on it. I know that it's a few years behind 2-73, but sounds like a very promising big brother of 2-73 in some pre- clinical studies.
Thanks

[tradeherpete]

The only thing I don't like about the study is that they have MMSE 20-28 as inclusion criteria (based on HH's slide at AAIC) and many MMSE 27 and 28 (MCI not mild AD) patients would not be expected to decline over 48 weeks. This potentially weakens a treatment effect if the numbers of these patients are too high.

MO, its very probable that their inclusion is to get two shots on goal -- one for mild Ad and one for MCI. Many studies show that the best time to make an impact is early in the disease and with PET, some MCI patients get diagnosed with AD earlier. If both groups are successful, they can include both in their final Phase 3 and if only one is successful, they can study that one in Phase 3. If none are successful, there's always A371.


MCI, when based on cognitive screens like MMSE, converts to AD at about 20% per year so many just stay at MCI x 3-5 years. Amnestic MCI (patients lost points for the short term recall and are normal elsewhere) has higher conversion to AD than non-amnestic MCI but most are still MCI at 48 weeks. Since amyloid PET and/or CSF is a criteria for entry (based on HH's AAIC talk), then all MCI patients enrolled in the P2/3 are theoretically at higher risk of progressing to AD so rate would probably be > 20%, though I doubt > 50% in 48 weeks.

This potentially weakens a treatment effect if the numbers of these patients are too high.

Sorry it took me so long to get here..

I agree.