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Replies to post #39017 on GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)
08/04/18 2:32 PM
THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 3, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 121810 so far is trading down about 6.96% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 6 days, while we have made a low at 120740 following the high established Thu. Jul. 26, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 122340 would imply a retest of the previous high. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2021. Up to now, the market been consolidating trading within last year's range. The direction into the next target due 2025 will be indictaed whether we close above or below last year's closing of 130930.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 6 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 16% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 6 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 158834 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 133770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 120390. This provides a 10% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 121420. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 10%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 121810, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 8.94% beneath that level.
A possible change in trend appears due come November in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during April. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 121070 but closed on the weak side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 121070 closing yesterday at 121810. We now need to close below 121070 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 121300.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 9th at 136940, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading down for the past 7 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0804%.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 11th reaching 131300 failed to exceed the previous high of 136940 made back during the week of April 9th. That rally amounted to onlythree typical reaction weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of May 21st and has closed beneath it warning the market is weak. Since then, the market has consolidated for the past 7 weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-2267 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 2274 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 131300, which was created during the week of June 11th. The previous weekly level low was 128120, which formed during the week of May 21st, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 128120 above the market.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136940 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. Critical support still underlies this market at 119440 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-519 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 522 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The previous monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. We have generated a sell signal, so some caution is required.
