Austin, you seem like a nice guy but people are giving you all kind of bad advices.
First of all there will be no S4V, no shares distributed to you and you will have to buy it,
Then you have to set your goal for HLCE or for just simply paying your house, your car, etc, and figure out how many shares you have to buy to achieve that goal.
Your initial question was if WMIH will go to 10 in 3 years without the phony asset exchange? I think so but just like any stock, I cannot warranty it but the chance is very good. Why? It's because I see the vision of the NSM CEO who will be CEO of the combined company WMIH. And then KKR will want to grow WMIH as fast as possible to consume the NOL in let say 5 years which means that WMIH has to have a 1.2B earnings per year.
Your next question is why NSM is trading at 18 while the merger company WMIH will trade for now at 1.41? You have to understand the concept of PE. NSM currently has 90M shares while the future WMIH will have 1.2B shares but the price drops to 1.41 and so the PE will be the same and likely lower. WMIH will go up to 10 first before going to 18.
The next earnings report of NSM is 8/2. That is after the merger is done probably and we may have a combined first earnings report of the merged company.
Now to achieve your goal of HLCE, it is irresponsible to tell you that WMIH will get billions from escrow which will make the stock do a K-Mart run. The S4V is not true and in fact illegal and impossible. So you need to buy WMIH shares and set a goal for the stock to go to 10 and figure out how many shares you have to buy to get to your goal.
The same goes with advising a young person to become a millionaire at 50. You don't say do nothing and just wait for winning the lottery and that's irresponsible. But you tell the young person to start saving as early as possible, right?
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