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06/30/18 9:06 AM
WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jun. 29, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7415 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. So far, we have been trading up for the past 9 days since the low made on Mon. Jun. 18, 2018. We did close above the previous session's high and the market remains quite strong. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 7867 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 7025. This provides a 10% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 8774 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5806. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 33%.
From a broad long-term perspective, the last important event was a high established during 2017, which was a rally from the low made back in 2016 amounting to a one year Knee Jerk Reaction.
A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during May. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has move to the downside so we could see a potential reaction low at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 7290 but closed on the weak side during May. We have now to exceed that level during June implying a continued advance was warranted. Support technically lies now at 6580 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 5807 becomes possible.
At this time, the market has closed on the Yearly level up 131.9% from the strategic low established in 2016, which has been a 1 year rally from that event.
Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed down 14% from the last cycle high established during 2017, which has been only a move from last year. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 58.9% from the strategic high established during 2008, which has been a 9 year move.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 7091. To date, this rally has been up for nine daily sessions and it has technically closed above projected support at 7186.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 25th at 7446, which was up 53 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 7446 to 6772. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of June 25th reaching 7446 has exceeded the previous high of 7290 made back during the week of May 21st. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Here we have rallied for the past week. The last weekly level low was 6340, which formed during the week of June 18th, and only a break of 6340 on a closing basis would signal serious weakness ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 7446, which was created during the week of June 25th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5806 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6181 on a closing basis would signal serious weakness ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 7290, which was created during May.
