:::: NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | June 23, 2018
Analysis for the Week of June 25, 2018
WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Jun. 22, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6858 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. So far, we have been trading up for the past 4 days since the low made on Mon. Jun. 18, 2018. We have advanced 7.83% from the previous day implying the market is still very strong. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 8289 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6371. This provides a 23% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 6955 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5806. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 16%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come August in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. Last month produced a high at 7290 and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 6580 closing yesterday at 6858. We now need to close beneath 6580 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.
At this time, the market has closed on the Yearly level up 131.9% from the strategic low established during 2016, which has been a 1 year rally from that event.
Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed down 14% from the last cycle high established during 2017, which has been only a move from last year. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 58.9% from the strategic high established during 2008, which has been a 9 year move.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 6596. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 21st at 7290, which was up 48 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have been generally trading down for the past 4 weeks, which has been a significant move of .1303%.
Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of May 21st has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 6955 made back during the week of April 16th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the the week of January 22nd. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 4205 made the week of June 19th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 6551. Additional support is to be found at 6763. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.
Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 52 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th, and only a break of 6429 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the weekly level was 7290, which was created during the week of May 21st. However, we still remain below key resistance 6997 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5806 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 27 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6181 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 7290, which was created during May.
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