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Replies to post #1656 on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
06/30/18 9:04 AM
WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Jun. 29, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closing today of 125450 so far is trading down about 4.18% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 4 days, while we have made a low at 124690 following the high established Mon. Jun. 25, 2018, this price action warns of at least a pause in trend if not a retest of key support. Only a close above 125720 would imply a retest of the previous high. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains quite bearish. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 133770 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 124810. This provides a 6.69% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 130990 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 126270. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 3.60%.
From a broad long-term perspective, the last important event was a high established during 2016, which was a rally from the low made back in 2015 amounting to a one year Knee Jerk Reaction. Last year produced an inside trading year. So far this year, we have penetrated last year's low and are currently trading positive above where we opened this year. However, we need to penetrade the last low of on an annual closing basis to signal a further decline.
A possible change in trend appears due come July in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during May. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, so far this market has already broken that previous low established at 128120. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 128120 but closed on the positive side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.2% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. However, from the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 417.5% from the strategic low established in 1999, which has been a 18 year rally from that key event.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed down 4.95% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Now bearing in mind the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 31.9% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.
The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bearish immediate tone with resistance at 127310. To date, this decline has been down forfour daily sessions. Nonetheless, after making a new low, the market bounced to close higher indicating the decline is starting to ease up for now.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 9th at 136940, which was up 17 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a sharp move of .0503% in a stark panic type decline.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 11th reaching 131300 failed to exceed the previous high of 136940 made back during the week of April 9th. That rally amounted to onlythree typical reaction weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of May 21st and has closed beneath it warning the market is weak. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 2 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 131300, which was created during the week of June 11th. The last weekly level low was 128120, which formed during the week of May 21st, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 128120 above the market.
Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 136940, which was created during April. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. However, we still remain above key support 130460 on a closing basis.
