Replies to post #178962 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[scotty3371]

Does she know where the crossovers are, or the placebos, or the treatments, unless she can differentiate those three groups she's sort of as blind as us?

[hankmanhub]

Umibe, unfortunately you are probably right in your assessment. There are however two other possibilities that while less likely are still within the ballpark: 1) She does think that the trial endpoint(s) have been met successfully, but nevertheless wants to get into the fat tail to improve the numbers for the label and be in a yet stronger marketing position when going commercial after approval at the present cost of a few more months for data to mature. 2) Lp is greedily dragging it out in order to milk the public and in crease her take while at the helm of a public corp as the naysayers argue (I do not believe this but can not rule it out totally as I do think LP has possibly played the investors with some self dealing along the way up until now as with Cognate and share grants and very cheap shares etc.

[TopelRoad]

Some board members apparently were able to see a leaked version of the trial protocol. They have suggested that there was a prospective end point to the trial of November 2018.

Per LP at ASCO, a spring refresh was under way. I expect this process to take 1-3 months dependent on money (low) and staffing (low).

Overall, I agree with your assessment that the behavior of the company supports the contention that NWBO believes the treatment and "placebo" arms of the trial are similar.

Additionally, LP focuses on the fat tail. This concerns me. There is no dual arm endpoint, so what exactly are the statisticians and SAB looking for to trigger un-blinding? This would have been a good discussion for an investor update, the lack of management guidance is causing FUD.

I contend that the placebo arm likely did well years 1-2, but may be eventing years 3-4. I am basing this on open trial arm data and similar trial placebos arms. If for some reason the placebo arm out survives the treatment group, its still a muddy finish. It may be a good time for the company to try to improve its transparency and governance. I am starting to rant so I guess I'll stop.