Umibe, you certainly seem to have a firm grasp of the reality of this situation. The PR firm they hired coordinated the ASCO presentation after meeting with and gaining the consent of management about the strategy. And let's be clear, this is not just a PR firm but a PR firm that specializes in crisis management. Whatever their credentials may be, they certainly laid an egg on this one.
All of the focus here on the meaningless minutiae of datapoint after datapoint (trees) has distracted many from being able to stay focused on the primary objective, which is getting this product approved and to market (forest). All of the analysis that gets posted here results not in facts, but in endless speculation, while in the end the only thing that matters is the official results of the Phase 3 study and whether it leads to this drug being approved and brought to market. Until we see that data we won't know the answer to that question, and all of the speculation about meaningless interim blended and blinded data won't answer it either. So what is the hold-up when the study is years past endpoints and when everybody knows the "long-tail" goal has already been achieved for all practical purposes? What is the reason they haven't released the data? Do they perhaps know something they are not sharing? (yeah, I know, that's the most rhetorical question ever asked)
Management was well aware that in June the share price would begin a steep decline due to the recently approved dilution and warrant-cashing, so they took two actions in an effort to quickly boost the share price: 1) After telling us they had submitted an article to a "major journal" in November 2017, an article that never appeared in print, what is assumed to be the same article about year-old blinded and blended data mysteriously showed up in a random journal no one had ever heard of that provided a one-month turnaround for publication. The company submitted the article on April 27, the same day as the dilution vote, which tells me that getting it published cost them a large chunk of change. It was a desperate dash to get this meaningless data into the public domain so that, 2) The company could hold a very costly (PR firm, rental space, fancy booth, paid speakers, et. al.) promotional presentation about this meaningless data at ASCO 2018.
The first effort resulted in a not-insignificant increase in share price to about $.30. But then came the disastrous dog and pony show presentation at ASCO that concluded with a reputable doctor begging them to release the data and the company CEO uttering a desperate-sounding plea for funding. The next day the share price tanked 11 percent. At the same time, we are now in June and the warrant cashing has commenced and the float will continue to grow by more than 800,000,000 shares. The share price will steadily slide as a result, and it won't be going back up until we know what happened with this Phase 3 trial. And even in a best-case scenario, thanks to massive dilution the share price ceiling is now significantly lower than it should be. But what about the other potential scenario? Did the trial fail? Or was the trial itself botched so that the results are invalid or somehow compromised? What is going on, and why won't the company say?
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