Replies to post #176741 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

You mean that the 69 authors might be wrong to believe that the drug might extend survival? I doubt it, it's much more statistically probable that, with all due respect, you might be wrong.

I will not speak for AVII, but of course the drug might extend survival regardless of how one looks at the blended, blinded, interim and strangely incomplete dataset.

Certainly it is worthy of further follow-up and analysis as they state in their conclusion. Who would not do this after such a long trial.

So I have no disagreement with the authors' conclusion.

But even if the drug actually does show some evidence of improving survival out on the tail, you have the issue with a failed primary (a near certainty), a probably failed 233 OS analysis (even ignoring the alpha issue). You can only datamine so long.

And of course on the investment front. We now need to wait for those last 60 or so ticks to march across the bit fat tail. Two years?

[iclight]

They can BELIEVE it but just like CLDX and IMUC, there are plenty of failed trials with authors who thought they would succeed.