Replies to post #16666 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

DE’s construction business (28% of FY2Q18 product sales, +84%! YoY) has clearly bottomed and is now booming. The outlook for DE’s ag business (72% of FY2Q18 product sales, +22% YoY) is less clear insofar as it depends on such variables as weather and tariffs; DE lowered FY2018 sales guidance slightly for the ag segment to +14% YoY (from prior +15% YoY).

Companies such as DE and CAT have clearly managed cyclicality in the current business cycle much better than in past cycles.

I'm not a buyer of DE at the current valuation, but I'm not selling either (due to the very low tax basis of my shares).

FY2Q18 PR:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deere-reports-second-quarter-net-103000941.html

[wow_happens28]

I feel the bottom has been reached in food commodity prices. That could help DE? I see signs that inflation in general is rising.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DBA&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46666519135

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RJA&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08449081290